| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | NC State | 17-24 | 1521.8 | +19.8 | 1541.6 | 25.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Campbell | 56-3 | 1541.6 | +87.5 | 1629.1 | 93.8% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 38-0 | 1629.1 | +84.3 | 1713.4 | 81.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | BYU | 13-34 | 1713.4 | -20.1 | 1693.3 | 17.0% |
| 6 | Sep 25 2025 | W | Army | 28-6 | 1693.3 | +28.9 | 1722.2 | 64.8% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | L | Tulane | 19-26 | 1711.3 | -17.4 | 1693.9 | 53.2% |
| 9 | Oct 16 2025 | W | Tulsa | 41-27 | 1693.9 | -16.2 | 1677.7 | 88.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Temple | 45-14 | 1677.3 | +51.6 | 1728.9 | 69.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Charlotte | 48-22 | 1728.9 | -13.9 | 1715.0 | 95.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Memphis | 31-27 | 1715.0 | +2.7 | 1717.7 | 48.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | UTSA | 24-58 | 1717.7 | -60.7 | 1657.0 | 66.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 42-3 | 1657.0 | +38.2 | 1695.2 | 78.7% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | Pittsburgh | 23-17 | 1685.0 | +25.0 | 1710.0 | 33.5% |